Journal Article

China, global economic disintegration, and the climate change challenge

China’s pivotal role in the global shift to net zero hinges on open international trade, enabling it to supply the zero-emissions world economy

Ross Garnaut

Director

Originally published in Oxford Review of Economic Policy on 12 June 2024.


Abstract

China has a large national interest in the success of the international effort to hold human-induced increases in temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels—and therefore in global net emissions falling to net zero by 2050. China is essential to the success of the global effort—as a supplier of competitively priced equipment for the zero-emissions world economy and as the world’s largest current source of greenhouse gas emissions. Success is more likely for China and the world with international specialisation in line with global comparative advantage in goods production for the zero-emissions economy. This requires open international trade, with China supplying equipment to and drawing zero emissions semi-processed goods from abroad. Contemporary tendencies in international political economy make that difficult but not impossible.

Ross Garnaut

Director

Ross Garnaut AC is a renowned economist specialising in development, economic policy and international relations. He is Professor Emeritus at the University of Melbourne and a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences. His contributions to trade policy and climate change have made him a trusted adviser to successive Australian governments.